Tool · scenarios

Future scenarios

Enter an amount and a period – the price history does the rest: this is what would happen if the past repeated itself in a weaker form. Nobody knows whether it will; the result is a range, not a prediction.

In the learning pathStage 3 · Plan

Runs: locally, in your browser
Inputs: stay on your device
Price: $86,292 BTC/USD
Sources: 3 · as of 27/09/2026
Advice: none – education, not recommendations

Not a forecast. This is what would happen if the past repeated itself in a weaker form – nobody knows whether it will. Gains have got smaller from cycle to cycle, and large or lasting losses are possible too.

Your details

Lump sum today

Plus each month

Investment period

Adjust

Which past?

Last 8 years Default: two halving cycles, the most recent picture.Since 2015 Includes the early, stronger years – a wider range.

Returns from real daily prices within the last 8 years, flattened and capped – details below the result.

After 10 years

local · in your browser

You pay in $13,000. If the pattern of the last 8 years continued in a weaker form, you would have about $21,700 after 10 years – weak $16,200, strong $37,700.

Weak

$16,200

1 BTC ≈ $139,000

price avg. +5% a year

Middle

$21,700

1 BTC ≈ $245,000

price avg. +11% a year

Strong

$37,700

1 BTC ≈ $607,000

price avg. +22% a year

Stress test: if the price fell as hard in the final year as in 2021/22 (-77%), you would be left with $5,180 instead of $21,700 – less than you paid in.

Paid in
Weak / strong
Middle
Crash like 2022

years · Move your mouse or finger over the chart – or click it and use the arrow keys.

Basis and values per year

4-year periods between October 2018 and October 2026: 49 (starting monthly, daily prices in US dollars). Annual return weak (bottom tenth) +15.1%, middle (median) +34.3%, strong (top tenth) +62%; weakest period +8.9%, strongest +82.5%.

Slowdown: gains have roughly halved with each halving cycle (4 years) so far, and the middle of these periods was 4 years ago. So from today gains count only 50%, then half again every four years; losses count in full. Years 1–4 use weak +7.5%, middle +17.1%, strong +33.8% a year.

Upper limit $1.4m per bitcoin – the value of all the gold in the world spread over 21 million bitcoin. Stress test: the middle path, then -77% in the final year as from 8 Nov 2021 to 21 Nov 2022.

Year	Paid in	Weak	Middle	Strong	Stress test
1	$2,200	$2,320	$2,480	$2,750	$2,480
2	$3,400	$3,750	$4,210	$5,090	$4,210
3	$4,600	$5,280	$6,240	$8,210	$6,240
4	$5,800	$6,920	$8,620	$12,400	$8,620
5	$7,000	$8,410	$10,600	$15,800	$10,600
6	$8,200	$9,950	$12,800	$19,800	$12,800
7	$9,400	$11,600	$15,100	$24,400	$15,100
8	$10,600	$13,200	$17,700	$29,900	$17,700
9	$11,800	$14,700	$19,700	$33,600	$19,700
10	$13,000	$16,200	$21,700	$37,700	$5,180

Starting price today: 1 BTC = $86,292

Without JavaScript you see the example with the default settings and the price from when the page was built. To calculate with your own values, please enable JavaScript – it only runs in your browser.

Open calculation

How we calculate

Assumptions, formulas and limits – click to expand

The model

Data: daily closing prices BTC/USD from Bitstamp, before that mempool.space, updated continuously.^[1],[2] The starting price is the current price.
Scenarios: from every N-year period in the comparison period (starting monthly; N = investment period, at most 4 = one halving cycle) we calculate the return per year. Weak = bottom tenth, middle = median, strong = top tenth: 8 in 10 periods fell in between.
Slowdown: the median 4-year return for periods starting after the 1st, 2nd and 3rd halving was 108%, 56% and 29% a year – it roughly halved each cycle. The middle of the last 8 years lies one cycle back, so from today gains count only half, from year 5 a quarter, and so on. Losses count in full. Middle and strong never end lower for a longer period than for a shorter one.
Upper limit: all above-ground gold was worth about $29tn at the end of June 2026.^[3] Spread over 21,000,000 bitcoin, that is about $1.4m per bitcoin. We never go higher; a scenario that would is flattened so that it ends exactly there.
Stress test: the middle path, but in the final year the price falls by 77% – as hard as from 8 Nov 2021 to 21 Nov 2022. The monthly amount buys cheaper during that time.
Payments: lump sum today, monthly amount at the start of each month. Not included: fees, taxes, inflation and exchange rates – all amounts in US dollars, because bitcoin trades worldwide in dollars.

Why not a forecast?

The model price rises evenly; real prices jump. From its high, bitcoin fell 85% in 2013–15, 83% in 2018,77% in 2021/22 and 53% from the October 2025 high to the end of June 2026.^[1] The high returns of the past come from the rise from almost nothing to an asset traded worldwide – that leap cannot be repeated at will. Long losing stretches, or a total loss, are possible too.

Sources3 sources · 3 publishers

The superscript numbers in the text refer to these sources.

API v2: OHLC-Daten BTC/USD (Dokumentation) – Bitstamp (accessed 05/10/2026)
REST API: Historical Price (Dokumentation) – mempool.space (accessed 05/10/2026)
How much gold has been mined? (Above-ground stock, end-Q2 2026) – World Gold Council (accessed 28/09/2026)

Future scenarios

How we calculate

The model

Why not a forecast?

We’re still building – block by block.

Not finished yet