Does HODL mean I can never sell?

No. HODL means not acting out of panic or overconfidence. Selling can be right if your plan provides for it, you need the money for your goal or your Bitcoin share is well above what you planned. What matters is that the rule is set in advance.

When is the next halving – and will the price rise afterwards?

The next halving comes at block 1,050,000, probably in spring 2028. So far, the cycle high came 12 to 18 months after a halving. That is only four observations with ever smaller swings – not a reliable signal.

What do I do if the price falls by 50%?

Whatever you wrote down for that case beforehand. Check whether your goal, your horizon or your financial situation has changed. If not, a falling price alone is no reason to change the plan. Before any unplanned decision, a 24-hour pause helps.

Has the stock-to-flow model been disproved?

As a forecasting tool, it hasn’t held up, because it explains the price through supply alone. After the 2024 halving, the stock-to-flow ratio was higher than ever – yet the price fell by around 53% from October 2025 to June 2026.

Holding for the long term (HODL): horizon, cycles, your own rules

On 18 December 2013, in the middle of a price crash, the forum user GameKyuubi posted ‘I AM HODLING’: he was a bad trader, he wrote, so he would simply hold on.^[1] The typo became the motto HODLGlossaryHODLCommunity slang for holding bitcoin for the long term, even when the price falls sharply. It began in 2013 with a typo (‘hodling’ instead of ‘holding’) in a forum post.On the learning path: Stage 3 · Step 3 – Returns & risk →In the glossary →. As a strategy, it only works with the right horizon, scepticism towards cycle forecasts and rules you set in advance.

What ‘long term’ means with Bitcoin

We took every calendar day since 1 January 2013 as a purchase day and checked how the purchase stood a set time later (own calculation from daily closing prices in US dollars up to 27 September 2026):^[2]

Holding period	Share of purchase days in profit	Worst result
1 year	69.3%	−83.4% (bought on 16 Dec 2017)
2 years	80.7%	−67.9% (bought on 4 Dec 2013)
3 years	99.2%	−35.4% (bought on 29 Nov 2013)
4 years	100%	+31.2% (bought on 8 Apr 2021)
5 years	99.8%	−13.3% (bought on 16 Dec 2017)

Holding for several years has historically cut the risk of loss sharply, but never ruled it out. Anyone who bought on 16 December 2017 was ahead after four years, but around 13% down after five. The series also covers just under 14 years, the time windows overlap heavily, and Bitcoin is a survivor – many other digital assets have failed. Five years or more, for money you are sure not to need for that long, is therefore a sensible guideline – not a guarantee.

Buying at a high hurts most. After the highs of 2013, 2017 and 2021, the price fell by 77 to 85%, and it took 28 to 39 months to close above the old high again. The most recent high was $124,728 on 6 October 2025 (daily close).^[2] The current price is $85,533. The depth and duration of every major crash are shown in Returns & risk.

The four-year cycle: pattern or myth?

Every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, the reward for new blocks is cut in half – the halvingGlossaryHalvingEvery 210,000 blocks – roughly every four years – the number of new bitcoin per block is cut in half. The fourth halving, on 20 April 2024, reduced it from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC.On the learning path: Stage 2 · Step 2 – Halving & 21 million →In the glossary →. Each of the four halvings so far was followed by a new high and then a deep crash. This gave rise to the theory of the four-year cycleGlossaryFour-year cycle (halving cycle)An observed pattern in which the bitcoin price has risen sharply roughly in step with the halvings and then fallen steeply. It is based on only four runs and is not a reliable buy or sell signal.On the learning path: Stage 2 · Step 2 – Halving & 21 million →In the glossary → (own calculation from daily closing prices in US dollars):^[3],[2]

Halving	Following cycle high	Days after	High vs. previous high	Fall afterwards
28 Nov 2012	4 Dec 2013: $1,132	371	–	−84.9%
9 Jul 2016	16 Dec 2017: $19,188	525	17×	−83.4%
11 May 2020	8 Nov 2021: $67,559	546	3.5×	−76.7%
20 Apr 2024	6 Oct 2025: $124,728	534	1.8×	−53.1% (so far, low on 30 Jun 2026)

The next halving comes at block 1,050,000, 79,957 blocks from now – expected around March 2028. Even so, the pattern is no basis for a strategy:

Few data points: four cycles are next to nothing statistically. That the pattern fitted again in 2025 may be chance – or a self-fulfilling expectation, because many people act on it.
Smaller swings: each high was smaller relative to the previous one, and each crash so far shallower. That gives you no rule for the next cycle.
A break in the pattern: in March 2024, the price closed above the previous cycle’s high before a halving for the first time.^[2]
Other drivers: BlackRock attributes the 2025/26 fall mainly to the unwinding of leveraged positions and shifting capital flows. The halving plays no part in that explanation.^[4]
Known in advance: every halving can be foreseen years ahead. In a functioning market, what everyone knows should long since be in the price.

Stock-to-flow: not a forecast

The stock-to-flowGlossaryStock-to-flow (S2F)A measure of scarcity: the existing stock divided by annual new production. A 2019 price model based on it became very popular, but was far off the mark and is no use for forecasts.On the learning path: Stage 2 · Step 2 – Halving & 21 million →In the glossary → model, published by the anonymous analyst PlanB in March 2019, went further still. It derives Bitcoin’s value from the ratio of existing supply to annual new production.^[5] Because every halving halves new production, the model produced much higher prices after each one. Demand plays no part in it. After the 2024 halving, the ratio was higher than ever – yet the price fell by 53% between 6 October 2025 and 30 June 2026.^[2] Why scarcity is still a genuine argument is explained in Digital scarcity.

Quick check

The next halving is approaching. What does that tell you about the price afterwards?

Staying the course: what it really takes

The big gains came on a few days, and nobody knew in advance which ones. This is what missing some of them did (own calculation in US dollars):^[2]

≈ $115
always invested: from $1, start of 2014 to 27 Sep 2026; ≈ $19
without the 10 best days: same period; ≈ $1.60
without the 30 best days: same period

The best and worst days were often right next to each other. On 14 January 2015 the price fell by 24%, and the next day it rose by 23%. On 12 March 2020 it dropped by 39%, and the next day it rose by 16%.^[2] If you sell in a fright, you often miss the recovery.

Holding for the long term doesn’t mean ignoring everything. Three things need regular attention:

Custody: holding bitcoin for decades takes a tested backup and an emergency plan. See Understanding custody and Inheritance & emergency plan.
Your share: after strong rises, a small allocation quickly becomes a big chunk. RebalancingGlossaryRebalancingBringing your asset allocation back to its planned shares. If the bitcoin share has risen sharply, you sell some; if it has fallen, you top up. This keeps your risk within the limits you set yourself.On the learning path: Stage 3 · Step 3 – Returns & risk →In the glossary → brings it back to the planned level – see Bitcoin as a small portfolio allocation.
Your life: if your goal changes – a new job, children, buying a home, retirement – your plan may change too. A price fall alone doesn’t change a goal.

German tax law currently rewards long holding: gains on privately held bitcoin are tax-free if more than one year passes between purchase and sale.^[6] A draft bill would change this for purchases from 2027; it has not been passed (as of 28 September 2026).^[7],[8] The reform tracker follows the latest status. Other countries have different rules – see Bitcoin tax around Europe. This is a general overview, not tax advice.

Set your rules in advance

The most important decision for staying the course isn’t made during a crash, but beforehand, with a clear head. Professionals call this an investment policy statement; for you, a single sheet of paper is enough. A fictional example, not a recommendation:

Building block	Example entry
Goal and horizon	Building wealth, needed in 12 years at the earliest
Target share	3% of total wealth
Savings amount	A fixed monthly amount via a savings plan, on the 2nd of the month
Review	Once a year, in January
Rebalancing	Adjust if the share is below 2% or above 4.5% – preferably via the savings amount
At −50%	Savings plan keeps running; sell nothing as long as emergency fund and goal are unchanged
Unplanned purchases or sales	Only after 24 hours to think it over
Selling	Only according to plan: when rebalancing or as the goal gets closer
Custody	Hardware wallet, backup tested, emergency letter deposited
Off limits	No leverage, no loans – with them, you can’t sit out a crash; no ‘signals’ from chat groups

How to spot thinking traps such as FOMOGlossaryFOMO (fear of missing out)‘Fear of missing out’. With Bitcoin, it’s the urge to buy quickly after sharp price rises. FOMO is a common trigger for costly bad decisions.On the learning path: Stage 3 · Step 2 – Goal first →In the glossary → and panic, and catch them with if-then rules, is explained in Psychology & discipline. How to sell in an orderly way later is covered in Selling & cashing out.

My plan for holding long term

0/8 done

Horizon noted: I won’t need this money for at least five years
Target share of my wealth set
Date for the annual review in my calendar
Rebalancing rule written down
Written down what I’ll do at −50% – and what I won’t
Rule for selling or withdrawing set
Custody set up with a tested backup and an emergency plan
Accepted the 24-hour rule for unplanned decisions

Stored only in your browser.

What’s next?

Psychology & disciplineFOMO, panic, loss aversion – and how to avoid your own thinking traps.Selling & cashing outPartial sales, tax, withdrawal to your bank account: how to take money out in an orderly way.DCA calculatorHow staying the course has played out in the past – including the troughs.