Bitcoin returns & risk: an honest look
What Bitcoin has returned since 2014, how deep the crashes were and how much it fluctuates compared with shares and gold – in US dollars, with sources and limits.
No prior knowledge needed: technical terms in the text open a short explanation when clicked or tapped. Take your time. dotted underline
In short~42 sec
- 01From the start of 2014 to September 2026, Bitcoin rose by an average of around 45% a year in US dollars – over the last five years, only around 15% a year.
- 02Since 2013, the price has fallen by more than half six times. After the three deepest crashes (77 to 85%), it took 28 to 39 months to reach the next record high.
- 03Since 2014, Bitcoin has fluctuated around four times as much as global shares or gold, and in crises it often fell together with shares.
- 04How much risk you carry depends above all on your share of your wealth.
- 05The past is not a forecast: the data series is short, and returns are falling as the market grows.
Good to read firstFinancial foundations firstGoal first
Since 2014, Bitcoin has on average returned far more than shares or gold – and along the way lost more than three quarters of its value several times. We show you both sides with the same data, so you can judge what that means for you.
What Bitcoin has returned so far
From the start of 2014 to 27 September 2026, the price in US dollars rose by an average of around 45% a year. $1 turned into around $115. Over the last five years, it was only around 15% a year.[1]
One important reason: the larger the market (market capitalisationGlossaryMarket capitalisation (market cap)Circulating supply multiplied by the current price. The figure shows the order of magnitude – not how much money has actually been invested or would come out if everything were sold.On the learning path: Stage 2 · Step 2 – Halving & 21 million →In the glossary →), the more money it takes for the same percentage move. Anyone who calculates with the returns of the early years is therefore likely to overestimate what’s realistic today. The path was never smooth:
| Year | Change | Year | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | −56% | 2021 | +59% |
| 2015 | +34% | 2022 | −64% |
| 2016 | +124% | 2023 | +156% |
| 2017 | +1,336% | 2024 | +121% |
| 2018 | −73% | 2025 | −6% |
| 2019 | +94% | 2026 (to 27 Sep) | −3% |
| 2020 | +304% |
Year-end to year-end, daily closing prices in US dollars, own calculation.[1]
The big crashes
How far the price is below its previous peak is called the drawdownGlossaryDrawdown (decline from the peak)The decline of a price from its last peak to the following low, as a percentage. Bitcoin has fallen by more than 75% several times; from October 2025 to June 2026, it fell by around 53% (in US dollars).In the glossary →. Since 2013, Bitcoin has fallen by more than half six times. After the three deepest crashes (2013–2015: −85%, 2017–2018: −83%, 2021–2022: −77%), it took 28 to 39 months each time from the peak to the next all-time highGlossaryAll-time high (ATH)The highest price bitcoin has ever reached. As of September 2026, it dates from 6 October 2025: $124,728 (daily close).In the glossary →.[1]
Daily closing prices BTC/USD (Bitstamp, before 18 Aug 2011 mempool.space), 1 Mar 2013 to 4 Oct 2026; own calculation.
Show values as a table
Major declines (50% or more)
| High | Low | Decline | High → low | High → new high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2013 · $229 | 6 Jul 2013 · $66.34 | −71% | 3 mo. | 7 mo. |
| 4 Dec 2013 · $1,132 | 14 Jan 2015 · $171 | −84.9% | 13 mo. | 39 mo. |
| 16 Dec 2017 · $19,188 | 15 Dec 2018 · $3,180 | −83.4% | 12 mo. | 35 mo. |
| 13 Apr 2021 · $63,564 | 20 Jul 2021 · $29,787 | −53.1% | 3 mo. | 6 mo. |
| 8 Nov 2021 · $67,559 | 21 Nov 2022 · $15,766 | −76.7% | 12 mo. | 28 mo. |
| 6 Oct 2025 · $124,728 | 30 Jun 2026 · $58,526 | −53.1% | 9 mo. | still open |
All monthly values
| Month | Month-end close | Lowest point vs. high |
|---|---|---|
| 03/2013 | $96.15 | −11.5% · new high |
| 04/2013 | $140 | −70.3% · new high |
| 05/2013 | $128 | −57.2% |
| 06/2013 | $89.53 | −61.1% |
| 07/2013 | $98.28 | −71% |
| 08/2013 | $128 | −59.7% |
| 09/2013 | $126 | −48.6% |
| 10/2013 | $204 | −54.7% |
| 11/2013 | $1,120 | −19.9% · new high |
| 12/2013 | $732 | −54.1% · new high |
| 01/2014 | $803 | −33.6% |
| 02/2014 | $552 | −52.7% |
| 03/2014 | $455 | −59.8% |
| 04/2014 | $449 | −67.9% |
| 05/2014 | $628 | −62.2% |
| 06/2014 | $641 | −50.5% |
| 07/2014 | $582 | −50.2% |
| 08/2014 | $479 | −58% |
| 09/2014 | $391 | −66.9% |
| 10/2014 | $338 | −71.4% |
| 11/2014 | $377 | −71.3% |
| 12/2014 | $321 | −72.5% |
| 01/2015 | $217 | −84.9% |
| 02/2015 | $253 | −80.8% |
| 03/2015 | $244 | −78.6% |
| 04/2015 | $236 | −80.9% |
| 05/2015 | $229 | −79.8% |
| 06/2015 | $263 | −80.3% |
| 07/2015 | $284 | −77.5% |
| 08/2015 | $230 | −81.5% |
| 09/2015 | $236 | −80% |
| 10/2015 | $310 | −79.1% |
| 11/2015 | $377 | −72.6% |
| 12/2015 | $431 | −68.3% |
| 01/2016 | $368 | −68.2% |
| 02/2016 | $435 | −67.5% |
| 03/2016 | $415 | −64.7% |
| 04/2016 | $448 | −63.2% |
| 05/2016 | $532 | −61.5% |
| 06/2016 | $668 | −52.6% |
| 07/2016 | $624 | −44.9% |
| 08/2016 | $571 | −52.3% |
| 09/2016 | $608 | −49.6% |
| 10/2016 | $697 | −46.4% |
| 11/2016 | $742 | −39.5% |
| 12/2016 | $966 | −33.7% |
| 01/2017 | $964 | −31.2% |
| 02/2017 | $1,191 | −13.1% · new high |
| 03/2017 | $1,070 | −27.7% · new high |
| 04/2017 | $1,350 | −16.1% · new high |
| 05/2017 | $2,298 | −15.6% · new high |
| 06/2017 | $2,465 | −18% · new high |
| 07/2017 | $2,856 | −35.1% |
| 08/2017 | $4,734 | −8.9% · new high |
| 09/2017 | $4,326 | −34.4% · new high |
| 10/2017 | $6,434 | −14.3% · new high |
| 11/2017 | $9,948 | −21.2% · new high |
| 12/2017 | $13,880 | −34.1% · new high |
| 01/2018 | $10,149 | −48% |
| 02/2018 | $10,315 | −64.2% |
| 03/2018 | $6,929 | −64.3% |
| 04/2018 | $9,242 | −65.5% |
| 05/2018 | $7,492 | −62.9% |
| 06/2018 | $6,386 | −69.5% |
| 07/2018 | $7,725 | −67.6% |
| 08/2018 | $7,017 | −68% |
| 09/2018 | $6,598 | −67.8% |
| 10/2018 | $6,303 | −67.9% |
| 11/2018 | $3,971 | −80.6% |
| 12/2018 | $3,693 | −83.4% |
| 01/2019 | $3,413 | −82.3% |
| 02/2019 | $3,791 | −82.5% |
| 03/2019 | $4,096 | −80.7% |
| 04/2019 | $5,269 | −78.4% |
| 05/2019 | $8,547 | −72.3% |
| 06/2019 | $10,760 | −60.2% |
| 07/2019 | $10,085 | −50.9% |
| 08/2019 | $9,594 | −50.5% |
| 09/2019 | $8,298 | −58.1% |
| 10/2019 | $9,150 | −61.3% |
| 11/2019 | $7,551 | −64% |
| 12/2019 | $7,168 | −65.5% |
| 01/2020 | $9,328 | −63.8% |
| 02/2020 | $8,528 | −55.6% |
| 03/2020 | $6,421 | −74.8% |
| 04/2020 | $8,627 | −65.5% |
| 05/2020 | $9,446 | −55.3% |
| 06/2020 | $9,133 | −53% |
| 07/2020 | $11,357 | −52.8% |
| 08/2020 | $11,655 | −42.3% |
| 09/2020 | $10,778 | −47.2% |
| 10/2020 | $13,816 | −45% |
| 11/2020 | $19,700 | −29.3% · new high |
| 12/2020 | $28,993 | −8.4% · new high |
| 01/2021 | $33,141 | −25.2% · new high |
| 02/2021 | $45,241 | −21.3% · new high |
| 03/2021 | $58,783 | −16.1% · new high |
| 04/2021 | $57,775 | −22.7% · new high |
| 05/2021 | $37,341 | −45.5% |
| 06/2021 | $35,037 | −50.3% |
| 07/2021 | $41,490 | −53.1% |
| 08/2021 | $47,156 | −39.9% |
| 09/2021 | $43,834 | −36.1% |
| 10/2021 | $61,359 | −25% · new high |
| 11/2021 | $56,974 | −20.4% · new high |
| 12/2021 | $46,214 | −31.6% |
| 01/2022 | $38,492 | −48.1% |
| 02/2022 | $43,179 | −45.3% |
| 03/2022 | $45,517 | −44.1% |
| 04/2022 | $37,640 | −44.3% |
| 05/2022 | $31,763 | −57.7% |
| 06/2022 | $19,925 | −71.9% |
| 07/2022 | $23,323 | −71.5% |
| 08/2022 | $20,059 | −71.1% |
| 09/2022 | $19,425 | −72.7% |
| 10/2022 | $20,498 | −71.8% |
| 11/2022 | $17,170 | −76.7% |
| 12/2022 | $16,528 | −75.7% |
| 01/2023 | $23,127 | −75.4% |
| 02/2023 | $23,136 | −68% |
| 03/2023 | $28,476 | −70.1% |
| 04/2023 | $29,235 | −59.7% |
| 05/2023 | $27,219 | −61% |
| 06/2023 | $30,469 | −62.8% |
| 07/2023 | $29,231 | −56.8% |
| 08/2023 | $25,932 | −61.6% |
| 09/2023 | $26,966 | −62.8% |
| 10/2023 | $34,661 | −60.4% |
| 11/2023 | $37,719 | −48.6% |
| 12/2023 | $42,258 | −42.7% |
| 01/2024 | $42,558 | −41.5% |
| 02/2024 | $61,161 | −37% |
| 03/2024 | $71,285 | −15.3% · new high |
| 04/2024 | $60,632 | −17.1% |
| 05/2024 | $67,477 | −20.3% |
| 06/2024 | $62,676 | −17.6% |
| 07/2024 | $64,612 | −23.6% |
| 08/2024 | $58,967 | −26.1% |
| 09/2024 | $63,302 | −26.2% |
| 10/2024 | $70,231 | −17.6% |
| 11/2024 | $96,441 | −7.3% · new high |
| 12/2024 | $93,381 | −12.8% · new high |
| 01/2025 | $102,412 | −12.8% |
| 02/2025 | $84,321 | −20.8% |
| 03/2025 | $82,538 | −26% |
| 04/2025 | $94,181 | −28.2% |
| 05/2025 | $104,646 | −11.2% · new high |
| 06/2025 | $107,179 | −9.6% |
| 07/2025 | $115,750 | −5.4% · new high |
| 08/2025 | $108,269 | −12.2% · new high |
| 09/2025 | $114,065 | −11.6% |
| 10/2025 | $109,554 | −14.6% · new high |
| 11/2025 | $90,382 | −32.1% |
| 12/2025 | $87,496 | −31.5% |
| 01/2026 | $78,635 | −37% |
| 02/2026 | $66,985 | −49.7% |
| 03/2026 | $68,215 | −47.3% |
| 04/2026 | $76,310 | −46.4% |
| 05/2026 | $73,568 | −41.2% |
| 06/2026 | $58,526 | −53.1% |
| 07/2026 | $62,818 | −51.9% |
| 08/2026 | $78,571 | −49.7% |
| 09/2026 | $83,563 | −39.4% |
| 10/2026 (to 4 Oct) | $86,510 | −32.3% |
The most recent big fall: from the peak on 6 October 2025 (around $124,700), the price dropped by 53% to around $58,500 by 30 June 2026.[1] BlackRock attributes this mainly to leveraged bets being unwound and outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs).[4] The current price is $86,292.
Quick check
The Bitcoin price falls by 80%. By what percentage does it then have to rise for you to get back to where you started?
Of $100, $20 is left. Getting back to $100 means a fivefold increase – a gain of 400%. That’s why deep crashes weigh so heavily.
Volatility compared with shares and gold
VolatilityGlossaryVolatilityA measure of how strongly a price fluctuates, usually given as annualised standard deviation in per cent. Bitcoin fluctuates much more than a broad stock index or gold – up and down.On the learning path: Stage 2 · Step 3 – Criticism & risks →In the glossary → measures how strongly a price fluctuates. Our comparison in US dollars, calculated from daily prices:[1],[2],[3]
| Asset | Volatility per year | Largest fall | Return per year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/2014 to 09/2026 | |||
| Bitcoin | 68% | −83% | 45% |
| Global shares (MSCI World ETF, incl. distributions) | 17% | −34% | 11% |
| Gold (futures contract) | 17% | −25% | 11% |
| 09/2021 to 09/2026 | |||
| Bitcoin | 52% | −77% | 15% |
| Global shares | 16% | −26% | 12% |
| Gold | 19% | −25% | 20% |
The largest fall is measured from January 2014, so the crash from the December 2013 peak (−85%) only partly counts.
Since 2014, Bitcoin has fluctuated around four times as much as shares or gold, and its largest fall was more than twice as deep. Over the last five years, gold even returned more – with a fraction of the volatility.
Volatility is falling, though: according to BlackRock, from regular peaks above 100% around ten years ago to mostly below 50% in the last two to three years. In the twelve months to 30 June 2026, it was 40% for Bitcoin, 26% for gold and 12% for the US equity index S&P 500.[4] Bear in mind: BlackRock itself sells Bitcoin products.
No reliable protection in a crisis
Correlation shows how closely two prices move together: 1 means in lockstep, 0 means no connection. By our calculation, between Bitcoin and the global equity ETF it was 0.23 since 2014 and 0.42 over the last five years.[1],[2] BlackRock even measures 0.53 with the S&P 500 since 2022.[5]
In periods of stress such as 2022, Bitcoin often fell with shares. For 2025/26, BlackRock describes a ‘dual personality’: at times a safe haven, at others closely tied to risky assets, especially when leveraged positions were being unwound.[4] So you can’t rely on diversification precisely when you’d need it most.
Risks beyond the price
- Total loss: Bitcoin pays no interest or dividends; its value depends solely on demand. Even Fidelity Digital Assets, a provider of Bitcoin products, points out that investors can lose the entire value.[6]
- Custody and fraud: a lost backup, phishing or a provider going bust can cost you your bitcoin, whatever the price. How to protect yourself is shown in the security checklist.
- Your own behaviour: the market’s return is not the investors’ return. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) analysed app data from 95 countries: by the end of 2022, in almost all of them most users were at a loss on Bitcoin. Many only got in after price rises, and in the crises of 2022 large investors sold while small ones bought.[7]
Further objections, from regulation to quantum computers, are covered in Criticism & risks.
What this means for you
The risk you carry depends above all on your share. This is what holdings of $5,000 would look like after the historical crashes:
| A fall like … | Remaining value | Loss |
|---|---|---|
| 2025–2026 (−53%) | $2,350 | −$2,650 |
| 2021–2022 (−77%) | $1,150 | −$3,850 |
| 2013–2015 (−85%) | $750 | −$4,250 |
What matters is whether it would change your life. If the $5,000 is a small part of $100,000 in wealth, the loss is painful but bearable. If it’s all your savings, it’s existential.
- The future calculator shows scenarios from the price history, including a crash like 2022.
- The DCA calculator shows what monthly purchases would be worth today – including the phases in the red.
- How a small share works in a portfolio is explained in Bitcoin as a small portfolio allocation.
- Why so many people sell at the bottom, and what helps against it: Psychology & discipline and Holding for the long term.
Quick check
Since 2014, Bitcoin has returned an average of around 45% a year. What does that mean for the future?
Over the last five years, it was only around 15% a year. Historical figures show a range – not a forecast and not a guarantee.
Frequently asked questions
Why does Bitcoin fluctuate so much?
The supply grows according to fixed rules and doesn’t respond to demand. On top of that come a young market, waves of sentiment and leveraged bets that amplify moves. BlackRock attributes the 2025/26 slump mainly to such leveraged positions being unwound.
Will Bitcoin’s volatility keep falling?
It has fallen: according to BlackRock, from regular peaks above 100% around ten years ago to mostly below 50% in recent years. Nobody knows whether that will last. Leveraged products and crises can push it up again at any time.
Is Bitcoin riskier than shares?
Measured by volatility and largest loss: yes, considerably. Since 2014, Bitcoin has fluctuated around four times as much as a global equity ETF, and its largest fall, at around 83%, was more than twice as deep. Whether that is bearable for you depends on your share.
Can I work out from the past what Bitcoin will deliver in future?
No. The history covers just over a dozen years with a few big cycles, and returns have already fallen considerably. It shows a range, not the future.
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Sources7 sources · 5 publishers
The superscript numbers in the text refer to these sources.
- BTC/USD daily closing prices (Bitstamp) – own analysis – Bitstamp (accessed 28/09/2026)
- Price data iShares MSCI World ETF (URTH), incl. distributions – own analysis – Yahoo Finance (accessed 28/09/2026)
- Price data gold futures (GC=F) – own analysis – Yahoo Finance (accessed 28/09/2026)
- Re-Underwriting Bitcoin: Still a Portfolio Diversifier After the Pullback? – BlackRock, 08/2026 (accessed 28/09/2026)
- How to diversify with bitcoin, gold and alternative investments – BlackRock, 06.05.2026 (accessed 28/09/2026)
- Is the Macro Case for Bitcoin Unraveling? – Fidelity Digital Assets, 20.08.2026 (accessed 28/09/2026)
- Crypto shocks and retail losses (BIS Bulletin No. 69) – Bank for International Settlements (BIS), 20.02.2023 (accessed 28/09/2026)
This article is for education only and is not investment, tax or legal advice.