Criticism & risks: the case against Bitcoin, honestly explained

If you buy Bitcoin, you should know the case against it – we’d rather tell you before than after. Here are the main objections, with data, counter-arguments and what you can do yourself.

Price crashes: falls of more than 50% have happened repeatedly

VolatilityGlossaryVolatilityA measure of how strongly a price fluctuates, usually given as annualised standard deviation in per cent. Bitcoin fluctuates much more than a broad stock index or gold – up and down.On the learning path: Stage 3 · Step 3 – Returns & risk →In the glossary →× is the risk you will feel first. Since 2013, the price has fallen six times by more than half from its previous all-time highGlossaryAll-time high (ATH)The highest price bitcoin has ever reached. As of September 2026, it dates from 6 October 2025: $124,728 (daily close).On the learning path: Stage 3 · Step 3 – Returns & risk →In the glossary →×. After the three deepest crashes (2013–2015: −85%, 2017–2018: −83%, 2021–2022: −77%), it took 28 to 39 months from the peak to the next record high.^[1]

Most recently, Bitcoin fell 53%, from around $124,700 on 6 October 2025 to around $58,500 on 30 June 2026.^[1] 1 BTC currently costs $86,292.

What a 77% fall means: $5,000 becomes around $1,150. To get back to $5,000, the price then has to rise by around 335%. How much Bitcoin fluctuates compared with shares and gold is shown in Bitcoin returns & risk: an honest look.

Crime: what the figures show

Criminals use crypto assets; that is undisputed. According to the analytics firm Chainalysis, at least $154 billion flowed to illicit addresses in 2025, 162% more than the year before. The main drivers were sanctioned actors, for example via the Russian rouble stablecoin A7A5.^[2]

For context:

• Small share: illicit activity accounted for less than 1% of attributed crypto volume.^[2]
• Mainly stablecoins: 84% of illicit volume went through stablecoinsGlossaryStablecoinA crypto-asset whose value is meant to be pegged to a currency such as the US dollar or the euro. Unlike bitcoin, a stablecoin has an issuer – its value depends on the issuer keeping its reserves and remaining solvent.In the glossary →×. Bitcoin is not the main driver.^[2]
• Lower bounds: for 2024, Chainalysis initially reported $40.9 billion, a year later $57.2 billion.^[2]

Two ECB authors see it differently: for them, Bitcoin remains the first choice for money laundering in the digital world.^[3] That said, every payment stays permanently visible on the public blockchainGlossaryBlockchainBitcoin’s public ledger: a chain of blocks in which each block refers to its predecessor. Anyone wanting to change an old entry would have to recreate all the blocks that follow it.On the learning path: Stage 1 · Step 3 – How does Bitcoin work? →In the glossary →×.

For you personally, a different risk is usually greater: fraud. Spotting & avoiding scams explains the most common schemes.

Quantum computers: a serious issue for the future, not an acute threat

Bitcoin secures balances with digital signatures. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could calculate the private keyGlossaryPrivate keyA secret, randomly generated number that you use to sign transactions and so control your bitcoin. Anyone who knows the private key can spend the bitcoin that belongs to it – it must never fall into anyone else’s hands.On the learning path: Stage 5 · Step 3 – Backing up your seed phrase →In the glossary →× from a known public keyGlossaryPublic keyCalculated from the private key and used to check your signatures. The calculation only works in one direction: the private key cannot be worked out from the public key.In the glossary →×. According to the authors of BIP-361, as of 1 March 2026 the public key of more than 34% of all BTC was already exposed on the blockchain.^[4]

No such quantum computer exists yet. Google’s Willow chip (December 2024, 105 qubits) was progress in error correction, not an attack on encryption.^[5] The BIP-361 authors point to estimates that a dangerous machine could be possible as early as 2027 to 2030.^[4] Such timelines are uncertain.

Developers are preparing a switch. The BIP-361 draft describes one possible process; nothing has been decided.^[4]

Dive deeperHow the switch could work under BIP-361

The prerequisite is a quantum-safe signature scheme, which would first have to be introduced. After that, the draft provides for two phases:^[4]

• Phase A, around three years after activation: payments to vulnerable addresses are no longer possible.
• Phase B, two years later: coins with old signatures can only be spent via a recovery procedure.

What happens to coins whose owners never switch remains disputed.

What you can do: use each receiving address only once – modern wallets generate new ones automatically. Keep your wallet software up to date and follow the discussion.

Regulation and bans

States can’t switch Bitcoin off, but they can make a lot harder. After China’s mining ban in June 2021, China’s measured share of computing power fell to practically zero in July and August 2021. The network kept running, and by September 2021 China was back at around 22%, according to Cambridge – probably due to covert mining, disguised for example via VPN or proxy services.^[6]

For the network, the ban was not the end. For people in the country affected, things get hard: once exchanges, banks and payment routes disappear, they can hardly get into Bitcoin – or back out again.

In the EU, rules apply instead of bans: providers need authorisation under the MiCAGlossaryMiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation)The EU regulation on markets in crypto-assets. Since 30 December 2024, exchanges, brokers and custodians in the EU have needed authorisation; the last transitional period ended on 1 July 2026. MiCA regulates providers, not Bitcoin itself.On the learning path: Stage 4 · Step 2 – Choosing a provider →In the glossary →× regulation.^[7] From 10 July 2027, the Anti-Money Laundering Regulation (AMLRGlossaryAMLR (EU Anti-Money Laundering Regulation)An EU regulation against money laundering that applies from 10 July 2027. It bans anonymous accounts at banks and crypto service providers and caps cash payments in trade at €10,000. Self-custody of bitcoin remains permitted.In the glossary →×) also prohibits them from keeping anonymous crypto accounts; self-custody remains permitted.^[8] Details are in MiCA & regulation. Tax rules can change too – for Germany, the reform tracker follows the state of play on the holding period.

Concentration: a few large holders and pools

Bitcoin was designed as money without a central authority. But large holdings sit with a few players (as of 28 September 2026):^[9]

Group	Holdings	Share of 21 million
Funds and exchange-traded products (excluding exchanges and custodians)	≈ 1.49m BTC, of which the iShares fund IBIT ≈ 797,000	≈ 7.1%
Listed companies (196)	≈ 1.28m BTC, of which Strategy ≈ 848,000	≈ 6.1%
States (partly estimates, excluding officials’ private holdings)	≈ 599,000 BTC, of which USA 328,372, China ≈ 190,000, United Kingdom 61,245	≈ 2.9%

Together that is around 3.4 million BTC, about 16% of the maximum possible supply (own calculation, overlaps possible). Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, alone holds around 4%.^[9]

Mining is concentrated too: in the twelve months to 28 September 2026, Foundry USA (28.3%) and AntPool (18.0%) together found 46.3% of all blocks, and the five largest mining poolsGlossaryMining poolA group of miners who combine their computing power and share the block reward according to the work each contributes. This means even small miners receive small amounts regularly instead of a large one very rarely.In the glossary →× 77.4%.^[10] A pool is not a single miner, however: the miners connected to it can switch.

For you, this means: through a fund or an exchange you share in the price, but you don’t hold your bitcoin yourself. More in Understanding custody.

Criticism from the ECB and the Bundesbank

In February 2024, two ECB authors wrote that Bitcoin’s fair value was still zero: it generates neither ongoing income nor dividends and cannot be put to productive use. The approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the US, they argued, changes nothing about that.^[3]

In January 2025, Joachim Nagel, President of the Bundesbank (Germany’s central bank), called Bitcoin ‘digital tulips’, an allusion to the tulip mania of the 17th century. Bitcoin is unsuitable as a currency reserve, he said, because a reserve has to be safe, liquid and transparent.^[11]

On the day of the ECB post, Bitcoin closed at around $51,300.^[1] Today the price is $86,292. Bitcoin has not become worthless since then: by October 2025 the price rose to around $124,700, and by June 2026 it had fallen by more than half from there.^[1]

Supporters counter that gold doesn’t generate income either and has nevertheless had a price for centuries. Bitcoin’s value, they argue, comes from scarcity, neutrality and the trust of many users. Some also point to central banks’ own interest in state money – an argument, not proof. More in Digital scarcity.

What does this mean for you?

What matters is whether you know these risks and can bear them. You can play through a crash with the future calculator. Common claims from fans and sceptics are put to the test in Myths & facts.