Goals & strategy

In short · 4 points

1. 01Bitcoin is the last step: before it come an overview, protection, paying off debt and an emergency fund.
2. 02Covering existential risks such as liability claims or occupational disability takes priority over any investment.
3. 03Expensive debt first: paying off an overdraft at around 7 to 17% a year (German rates) saves that interest for certain – no investment makes such a return certain.
4. 04Depending on the source, your emergency fund covers three to six months’ expenses or salary and sits in an instant-access savings account – not in Bitcoin.

In short · 5 points

1. 01Before your first purchase, the question isn’t ‘Which app?’ but ‘What for?’. Your goal determines your horizon, the amount, custody and how you behave in a crash.
2. 02Bitcoin suits long-term goals, if any. It is unsuitable for your emergency fund and for money you need within a few years.
3. 03The larger the amount and the longer the horizon, the more your custody needs security over convenience.
4. 04Understanding it first is a perfectly valid goal. You don’t have to buy anything.
5. 05A tool for thinking, not investment advice: no amounts, no providers.

In short · 5 points

1. 01From the start of 2014 to September 2026, Bitcoin rose by an average of around 45% a year in US dollars – over the last five years, only around 15% a year.
2. 02Since 2013, the price has fallen by more than half six times. After the three deepest crashes (77 to 85%), it took 28 to 39 months to reach the next record high.
3. 03Since 2014, Bitcoin has fluctuated around four times as much as global shares or gold, and in crises it often fell together with shares.
4. 04How much risk you carry depends above all on your share of your wealth.
5. 05The past is not a forecast: the data series is short, and returns are falling as the market grows.

In short · 4 points

1. 01If you save from your ongoing income, you have no choice: a savings plan is the natural form.
2. 02With an existing sum, investing it all at once has historically come out ahead in around two out of three cases – for shares according to Vanguard, and for Bitcoin in our backtest in US dollars.
3. 03The cost-averaging effect is maths, not a return advantage over investing straight away.
4. 04Staggering helps mainly psychologically: less regret, more loyalty to the plan. If you do it, keep it short and on fixed dates.

In short · 5 points

1. 01Bitcoin is not a foundation for your pension. If it fits at all, it’s as a small, fixed allocation within private, unsubsidised provision.
2. 02Germany’s Altersvorsorgedepot (from 1 January 2027) does not allow crypto-assets.
3. 03Time helps while you save, but it doesn’t protect you from a slump shortly before retirement. A glide path reduces this risk.
4. 04In Germany, gains on directly held bitcoin are tax-free after more than a year. A draft bill would end this for purchases from 2027 – it has not been passed (as of 28 September 2026).
5. 05Without an emergency and inheritance plan, self-custodied bitcoin are lost when the worst happens.

In short · 4 points

1. 01Bitcoin is unsuitable for your emergency fund and savings goals with a fixed date. At most, it’s an option for money you won’t need for many years.
2. 02Preserving value is a question of time frame: in 2022 euro area inflation peaked – and in the same year the Bitcoin price fell by around 64% (in US dollars).
3. 03Monthly savings plans since 2013 have so far always been in profit after four years or more, but along the way some were around 50% down. That is not a forecast.
4. 04Nobody knows the cheapest day to buy in advance, but the costs are known. What also matters is an amount you’ll keep paying even in a crash.

In short · 5 points

1. 01Studies by BlackRock, Bitwise and Fidelity mostly arrive at 1 to 5% Bitcoin in a mixed portfolio. All three earn money from Bitcoin themselves.
2. 02German consumer sources set upper limits: Finanztip at most 10% for all speculative investments combined, the Verbraucherzentrale at most 5% for crypto-assets – and it doesn’t recommend Bitcoin as an investment.
3. 03What matters is whether you could cope with this share falling by 80% without changing your plans.
4. 04Without rebalancing, a small allocation becomes a large position: in a Bitwise calculation, the portfolio’s largest loss was then around 51%, with annual rebalancing around 24%.
5. 05We name no percentage. The ranges are orientation, not instructions.

In short · 4 points

1. 01The most expensive mistakes happen before your first purchase: no emergency fund, debt, too much money or FOMO.
2. 02When buying, what counts is an authorised provider, the total cost and steering clear of leverage and loans.
3. 03In custody, the seed phrase is everything: never digital, never shared, and test the recovery once.
4. 04After buying, the main dangers are scams, trading too much and missing records for tax.

In short · 5 points

1. 01Selling is part of the strategy. Rules you set in advance protect you from decisions driven by greed or fear.
2. 02Partial sales in stages or along a glide path are easier to live with than selling everything at once.
3. 03Tax in Germany (as of September 2026): after more than one year, the gain is tax-free. Before that, only if all your private disposal gains for the year stay below €1,000 (the exemption limit). Without individual proof, the bitcoin bought first in each wallet count as sold first (FIFO).
4. 04The way to your bank account: send to an authorised provider, sell there, pay out by SEPA transfer to an account in your own name, keep the records.
5. 05If you’re asked to transfer fees or taxes before a payout, you’re dealing with fraudsters.

In short · 4 points

1. 01Holding for several years has historically cut the risk of loss sharply – but never ruled it out. Even after five years, some purchases were down, by around 13% at worst.
2. 02The four-year cycle rests on four observations with ever smaller swings, and the stock-to-flow model did not predict the price. Neither works as a timing signal.
3. 03If you miss the best days, you miss most of the return – and the best days were often right next to the worst.
4. 04Staying the course works with rules you write down in advance: allocation, review, what you do at −50%, selling.

In short · 5 points

1. 01With Bitcoin, behaviour often decides the outcome: according to the BIS, most crypto-app users lost money on Bitcoin between 2015 and 2022.
2. 02FOMO drives buying after price rises, panic drives selling in a crash. Both react to the last few weeks, not to your goal.
3. 03Loss aversion and confirmation bias can’t be switched off – but they can be planned for with if-then rules written down in advance.
4. 04Information diet: anyone who checked the price monthly since 2014 saw a loss in almost every other month.
5. 05An investment journal later shows you whether your plan or your feelings made the decision.