Digital scarcity: Bitcoin, gold and the question of sound money

‘Bitcoin is scarce’ is one of the most common arguments for Bitcoin. It’s true – but scarcity alone doesn’t make good money or a safe store of value.

Why scarcity matters for money

The US Federal Reserve lists six properties that money should have: durability, portability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply and acceptability.^[1] Limited supply is the foundation: anything that anyone can produce at will loses its value. That’s why goods that take effort to obtain, such as silver and gold, served as money for a long time.

Scarcity is only a precondition, though: something can be rare without anyone wanting it. What jobs money has to do is explained in Money, inflation & trust.

Digital files can be copied endlessly. Bitcoin prevents this without a central authority: many independent computers keep a shared ledger in which each unit can only be spent once. How does Bitcoin work? shows how that works.

How Bitcoin becomes scarce

New bitcoin are only created as a reward for a new block. The reward started at 50 BTC in 2009 and halves every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years.^[3],[4] Added up, that gives at most 20,999,999.9769 BTC, just under 21 million. The last reward is expected around 2140.^[4]

Show values as a table

Event	Block	Date	Reward from then	Issued by then
Start	0	03/01/2009	50 BTC	–
1st halving	210,000	28/11/2012	25 BTC	10,500,000 BTC (50%)
2nd halving	420,000	09/07/2016	12.5 BTC	15,750,000 BTC (75%)
3rd halving	630,000	11/05/2020	6.25 BTC	18,375,000 BTC (87.5%)
4th halving	840,000	20/04/2024	3.125 BTC	19,687,500 BTC (93.75%)
5th halving	1,050,000	approx. April 2028	1.5625 BTC	20,343,750 BTC (96.88%)
6th halving	1,260,000	approx. April 2032	0.78125 BTC	20,671,875 BTC (98.44%)
7th halving	1,470,000	approx. April 2036	0.390625 BTC	20,835,937.5 BTC (99.22%)
8th halving	1,680,000	approx. April 2040	0.1953125 BTC	20,917,968.75 BTC (99.61%)
9th halving	1,890,000	approx. April 2044	0.09765625 BTC	20,958,984.375 BTC (99.8%)
33rd halving (reward 0)	6,930,000	approx. 2140	0 BTC	20,999,999.9769 BTC (100%)

Own calculation from the consensus rules (Bitcoin Core). Future dates: block height × 10 minutes, as of 05/10/2026 (Block 970,043).

So far, 20,093,887 BTC have been issued, or 95.69% of the final supply. The reward currently stands at 3.125 BTC per block (own calculation from the block height and the issuance rule).^[5],[3] Between the 2024 and 2028 halvings, around 450 BTC are created per day. The supply therefore grows by around 0.8% a year, and from 2028 by around 0.4%.

The rule isn’t enforced by a company but by every full nodeGlossaryFull nodeA node that checks every block and every transaction itself against all the consensus rules. If you run a full node, you don’t have to trust anyone to know whether a payment is valid.In the glossary →×: it rejects any block that creates more new bitcoin than allowed. That’s why you can check the 21 million limitGlossary21 million (Bitcoin’s supply cap)Under the network’s rules, there will never be more than just under 21 million bitcoin. The cap follows from the issuance schedule: new bitcoin per block halve every 210,000 blocks until none are created, around 2140.On the learning path: Stage 2 · Step 2 – Halving & 21 million →In the glossary →× yourself with your own software. More on this in Nodes & decentralisation and The halving & the 21 million.

In the end, fewer than 21 million will be usable: bitcoin with lost keys can never be moved again, and the 50 BTC of the first block can’t be spent.^[4]

Bitcoin and gold compared

According to the World Gold Council, around 222,600 tonnes of gold have been mined so far (as of the end of June 2026).^[6] In 2025, preliminary figures put mine production at 3,672 tonnes.^[7] One year’s production therefore equals around 1.6% of the stock – roughly twice Bitcoin’s rate between 2024 and 2028 (own calculation).

The more important difference: how much gold is mined depends on price and technology. Bitcoin’s issuance schedule is fixed for every future block, however high the price.

Property	Gold	Bitcoin
Limited supply	naturally limited; 2025 production around 1.6% of the stock	at most just under 21m BTC; growth halves with every halving
Durability	practically indestructible	exists as long as the network runs; lost keys mean total loss
Portability	heavy and cumbersome in large quantities	transferable worldwide; access can be secured with a seed phrase
Divisibility	limited (bars, coins)	down to 0.00000001 BTC (1 satoshiGlossarySatoshi (sats)The smallest unit of Bitcoin: 1 satoshi (‘sat’ for short) equals 0.00000001 BTC, so one bitcoin consists of 100 million sats. The unit is named after Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.On the learning path: Stage 1 · Step 4 – Sats & units →In the glossary →×)
Uniformity	purity has to be tested	every unit follows the same rules, but its history is publicly traceable
Verifiability	authenticity check needed	can be verified at any time with your own software
Acceptance	for thousands of years; around 18% of all gold is held by central banks	since 2009; little used for everyday payments
Price fluctuation (volatility, 12 months to 30 June 2026)	26%	40%

Sources: World Gold Council, Bitcoin Core, BlackRock.^{[6],[7],[2],[8]}

Store of value: aspiration and reality

A store of valueGlossaryStore of valueOne of the three classic functions of money: it should keep its value over time so that you can save today and spend later. Whether bitcoin fulfils this role is disputed.On the learning path: Stage 2 · Step 3 – Criticism & risks →In the glossary →× is meant to carry purchasing power over time. Supporters see Bitcoin as ‘digital gold’: scarce, independent, usable worldwide. Critics consider the price swings incompatible with a safe store of value.

Prices: Bitstamp daily closes in US dollars, own calculation.^[9] Further evidence: BlackRock, BIS, Bundesbank.^{[8],[10],[11]} One bitcoin currently costs $85,533; you can follow the price history yourself in a live chart.

Stock-to-flow: why the model is not a forecast

The stock-to-flowGlossaryStock-to-flow (S2F)A measure of scarcity: the existing stock divided by annual new production. A 2019 price model based on it became very popular, but was far off the mark and is no use for forecasts.On the learning path: Stage 2 · Step 2 – Halving & 21 million →In the glossary →× ratio divides the existing stock by annual new production. It tells you how many years today’s production would need to recreate the stock (own calculation):

• Gold: 222,600 tonnes ÷ 3,672 tonnes ≈ 61
• Bitcoin (2024 to 2028): around 20m BTC ÷ around 164,000 BTC ≈ 120, from 2028 roughly twice that

As a description, this is useful: measured against its stock, Bitcoin currently grows more slowly than gold. But a model published in 2019 under the pseudonym ‘PlanB’ derived price targets from it.^[12] That doesn’t hold up, for three reasons:

1. Demand is missing. The price results from supply and demand; the model only knows supply.
2. The real-world test argues against it. After the 2024 halving, the ratio was higher than ever – yet the price fell by around 53% between October 2025 and June 2026.^[9] BlackRock attributes this to the unwinding of leveraged positions and to capital flows, not to supply.^[8]
3. Too few data points. There have been four halvings so far. Patterns drawn from so few observations may be pure chance.

What does this mean for you?

• Scarcity is a property, not a guarantee. The cap is real and verifiable. Whether Bitcoin keeps its value depends on whether people continue to use it and demand it.
• Expect deep falls. If you use Bitcoin as a store of value, you need to be able to withstand falls of more than 50%. Returns & risk explains volatilityGlossaryVolatilityA measure of how strongly a price fluctuates, usually given as annualised standard deviation in per cent. Bitcoin fluctuates much more than a broad stock index or gold – up and down.On the learning path: Stage 3 · Step 3 – Returns & risk →In the glossary →× and drawdownsGlossaryDrawdown (decline from the peak)The decline of a price from its last peak to the following low, as a percentage. Bitcoin has fallen by more than 75% several times; from October 2025 to June 2026, it fell by around 53% (in US dollars).On the learning path: Stage 3 · Step 3 – Returns & risk →In the glossary →×.
• You don’t need whole coins. Thanks to divisibility, you can start with small amounts; the sats converter converts dollars into sats.
• Scarcity only helps you if you have access. No one can restore lost keys. How to keep your bitcoin safe is explained in Understanding custody.

What’s next?