Four-year cycle (halving cycle)

Roughly every four years, the halvingGlossaryHalvingEvery 210,000 blocks – roughly every four years – the number of new bitcoin per block is cut in half. The fourth halving, on 20 April 2024, reduced it from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC.On the learning path: Stage 2 · Step 2 – Halving & 21 million →In the glossary →× cuts the number of new bitcoin per block in half. So far, the price has reached a new all-time highGlossaryAll-time high (ATH)The highest price bitcoin has ever reached. As of September 2026, it dates from 6 October 2025: $124,728 (daily close).On the learning path: Stage 3 · Step 3 – Returns & risk →In the glossary →× one to one and a half years after each halving, followed by a steep crash and a long recovery. The community calls this rhythm the four-year cycle.

The pattern in numbers

Halving	Cycle high afterwards	Decline from the high
2012	late 2013	around 85%
2016	December 2017	around 83%
2020	November 2021	around 77%
2024	October 2025	around 53% (low so far: 30 June 2026)

Daily closing prices in US dollars, as of September 2026.^[1] The swings have become smaller from cycle to cycle. The next halving is due at block 1,050,000, expected around March 2028; the price is currently $85,533.

Why caution is advisable

• Few observations: four runs may simply be chance.
• Self-fulfilling: if many people trade by the cycle, it may arise precisely because of that – until it no longer does.
• Long known: the issuance schedule has been fixed since 2009. A predictable event shouldn’t offer a reliable opportunity for profit.
• Other drivers: BlackRock – itself a provider of Bitcoin products – attributes the 2025/26 decline to deleveraging and shifting investor flows, with no reference to the halving.^[2]

What this means for you

The cycle describes the past; it isn’t a roadmap for getting in and out. A fixed plan – such as a savings planGlossarySavings plan (Bitcoin savings plan)Automatically buying bitcoin at fixed intervals with a fixed amount, for example $50 a month. A savings plan takes the question of the right moment off your hands, but doesn’t promise a higher return.On the learning path: Stage 4 · Step 4 – Setting up a savings plan →In the glossary →× and clear rules for selling – works whether or not the pattern repeats. More in The halving & the 21 million.